Therefore, the fluctuation cycle of high-speed railway passenger flow is one day and one week. The second one is nonlinear fluctuation which also imposes a great impact buy Ganetespib on passenger flow forecast. Specifically, the change rate of passenger flow is instable with nonlinear fluctuation for a short time because of many effect
factors, such as passengers’ income, travel cost, and service quality of transportation, which is revealed in Figures Figures11 and and22. 3. Regularity of Passenger Flow Notation: p(t): the passenger flow in period t, n: the total number of points of the historical passenger flow series, p(n): the current passenger flow state, v(t): the passenger flow change rate from p(t) to p(t+1), ui: the interval of passenger flow change rate, ui′: the intermediate value
of ui,i = 1,2,…, 8. The history passenger flow series is denoted by p(1), p(2),…, p(t − 1), p(t), p(t + 1),…, p(n − 1), p(n). The passenger flow change rates v(1), v(2),…, v(t − 1), v(t), v(t + 1),…, v(n − 2), v(n − 1) between adjacent periods are taken into account, and then the passenger flow change rates are analyzed and variation of passenger flow in adjacent period is summed up. 3.1. Change Rate of Passenger Flow In order to express passenger flow trend in adjacent period clearly and more accurately, passenger flow change rate is normalized. Define standardized passenger flow change rate v(t) = (p(t + 1) − p(t))/pmax ∈ [−1,1], and pmax = max (|p(2) − p(1)|, |p(3) − p(2)|,…, |p(n) − p(n − 1)|). For p(t + 1)
− p(t) < 0, the passenger flow descends from period t to t + 1; for p(t + 1) − p(t) > 0, the passenger flow increases from period t to t + 1; for p(t + 1) − p(t) = 0, the passenger flow does not change from period t to t + 1. In Table 1, the data are collected from Beijingnan Railway Station to Jinanxi Railway Station in Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway. For example, the maximum value of the passenger flow change in adjacent periods is calculated as pmax = max (|p(2) − p(1)|, |p(3) − p(2)|,…, |p(n) − p(n − 1)|) = 857; the passenger flow change rate from 8:00–8:30 to 8:30–9:00 on October 10th is calculated as v(1) = (p(2) − p(1))/pmax = (304 − 70)/857 = 0.273. Similarly, we can calculate the passenger flow change rates, which are 0.231, 0.5158, −0.8145, and so forth, as shown in Table 1. Table 1 The value of passenger flow, passenger flow change degree, passenger flow change Anacetrapib rate, and fuzzy set. 3.2. Variation of Passenger Flow In order to reveal the regularity of the passenger flow trend clearly and express varying degrees of passenger flow change, respectively, we divide passenger flow change rate into eight intervals applying Zadeh’s fuzzy set theory . Define the universe of discourse U = u1, u2, u3, u4, u5, u6, u7, u8 and partition it into equal length intervals u1 = [−1, −0.75], u2 = [−0.75, −0.5], u3 = [−0.5, −0.25], u4 = [−0.25,0], u5 = [0,0.